Predictive analytics
Rethinking likelihood of failure
Questioned the use of Remaining Service Life as a proxy for pipe failure, researched Random Forest applications in Norway and Canada, and built an initial proof of concept using a synthetic dataset of approximately 30,000 pipes.
The question
Remaining Service Life is often used as a proxy for Likelihood of Failure. That proxy can mislead investment decisions when failure behaviour is sparse, non-linear and driven by factors a simple residual-life curve does not capture.
What was tested
International Random Forest applications were reviewed and an early proof of concept was built on synthetic data of approximately 30,000 pipes to explore whether a more defensible method could be framed.
Current status
Scottish Water's Analytics team is progressing implementation and testing with external expertise. The aim is to identify the most defensible method and the data it needs — not to claim a production model before the evidence supports one.